MD 2049 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KS…NORTHWEST OK…OK/TX PANHANDLES
Mesoscale Discussion 2049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Sep 08 2025
Areas affected...Parts of southwest KS...northwest OK...OK/TX
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 082053Z - 082300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Coverage is uncertain, but isolated severe storm
development may occur by 5-7 PM CDT. Watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...To the east of a surface trough and west/south of
remnant outflow, a conditionally favorable severe-storm environment
has evolved this afternoon from southwest KS into the OK/TX
Panhandles. Diurnal heating of a moist airmass has resulted in
moderate to locally strong destabilization, with MLCAPE now in the
2000-3000 J/kg range per recent mesoanalyses. Across this region,
modest midlevel northwesterly flow atop low-level southerlies is
supporting elongated hodographs and effective shear of 30-40 kt,
sufficient for organized storms, including supercell potential.
Details of storm coverage and timing within this favorable
environment remain uncertain, with generally modest large-scale
ascent across the region. However, given the presence of multiple
surface boundaries within an uncapped environment, at least isolated
storm development is possible by 5-7 PM CDT. Development may occur
as far west as extreme southwest KS into the western OK/TX
Panhandles, in the vicinity of the weak surface trough. There is a
somewhat stronger (though still uncertain) signal for development
across the OK/northeast TX Panhandles into adjacent southwest KS, in
closer proximity to the remnant outflow, where a gradually
strengthening low-level jet may sustain severe-storm potential into
the evening.
Should robust development occur, splitting supercells will be
possible, with a primary threat of large to very large hail and
localized severe gusts. A tornado cannot be ruled out if any
supercells can be sustained near the remnant outflow, especially as
low-level shear/SRH increases with time early this evening. Watch
issuance is possible if confidence increases in the development of
one or more sustained supercells into the early evening.
..Dean/Hart.. 09/08/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 36720233 37860139 38860094 38880037 38899970 36949911
36159948 35329992 35290091 35730219 36320290 36720233
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
