MD 2087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025 Areas affected...Arrowhead of Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162224Z - 170030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A few strong-severe thunderstorms are developing over the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Some risk for hail/wind can be expected with these storms. DISCUSSION...Southern extent of SK/ON short-wave trough is influencing the international border region, especially the Arrowhead of MN. Strong boundary-layer heating has contributed to substantial buoyancy across this region, and inhibition is currently negligible where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s. Latest visible imagery supports this with a considerable amount of congestus and towering cu over St. Louis County. Over the last few minutes, a weak shower, with lightning, has developed near Ely and this updraft is likely rooted within a confluent boundary layer characterized by 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Forecast soundings favor some risk for hail/wind as thunderstorms intensify ahead of the short wave. This activity will spread across the Arrowhead into northwest ON, but current thinking is the area is too limited to issue a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 09/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH... LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
