MD 2101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Areas affected...extreme southern Nebraska into much of
northwest/north-central Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192009Z - 192245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in cover across
northwest/north-central Kansas, and a few storms may produce hail
over 1.00" diameter.
DISCUSSION...An area of convection with a lone severe cell continues
to push southeastward into far south-central NE, in association with
a midlevel wave with cooling aloft and a surface boundary. Extending
west/southwest along the front are newly developing cells into far
northwest KS.
South/ahead of this activity, temperatures continue to warm, into
the lower 80s F. Modified forecast soundings show the air mass is
now uncapped over much of western KS.
The combination of increasing northwest flow aloft and gusty
southerly winds in the boundary layer results in a favorable wind
profile for southeastward moving cells capable of hail. Given the
favorable time of day and approaching upper wave, it is likely that
storms will increase in coverage, and spread southeastward across
the warming air mass south of the front.
Instability is not particularly strong, but at least 1.00" hail is
likely with the stronger cores through the afternoon.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/19/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39830183 40199894 39929852 39099827 38809846 38699882
38679928 38679996 38700084 38940143 39200174 39650199
39830183
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
