MD 2104 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615… FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Areas affected...Central and South Central Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615...
Valid 200150Z - 200345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms within WW 0615 are expected to
persist for the next couple of hours, and maintain a threat for
damaging straight-line winds and hail.
DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms continues
south-southeastward across the western and central portions of WW
0615. The 00Z DDC RAOB downstream of the current convection showed
an unstable and uncapped airmass, approximately 40 kts of deep layer
shear, and fairly substantial 0-3km SRH exceeding 200 m^2 / s^2.
Though the nocturnal boundary layer has (and will continue) to
stabilize, warm air advection influenced by a modest nocturnal
low-level jet will continue to support elevated convection over the
next couple of hours. This low-level jet is also influencing the
low-level curvature of the hodograph, which will further support
continued storm intensity through the maintenance of low-level and
mid-level mesocyclones.
Given the decrease in buoyancy with eastward extent, the expectation
is that storm severity will also decrease with eastward extent. The
primary threat will be for hail up to 1.75 inches, and 60 MPH winds.
..Halbert.. 09/20/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38870060 38970036 38989970 38969925 38809892 38359866
38039854 37819849 37559869 37379909 37379957 37410010
37470034 37620060 38160072 38530071 38710070 38870060
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
