MD 2113 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 616… FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2113 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0547 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025 Areas affected...Southern Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616... Valid 212247Z - 220045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 616 continues. SUMMARY...Strong-severe thunderstorm clusters will continue propagating southeast across ww616. Wind and hail remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined midlevel vort over northeast OK digging southeast toward northwest AR. Southwestern influence of the associated trough appears to be aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across portions of north Texas into extreme south central Oklahoma. Strong boundary-layer heating has proven instrumental in destabilization near the frontal zone and 0-3km lapse rates are quite steep across north Texas. Latest MRMS data suggests at least three robust updrafts are likely generating large hail, one over eastern Young County, northern Denton County, and southeast Grayson County. Northwesterly flow is gradually strengthen over the next several hours, so this activity should continue propagating southeast toward the I-20 corridor, including the Metroplex. Hail and wind can be expected with the strongest storms. ..Darrow.. 09/21/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 33329997 34459622 33149621 32009997 33329997 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
