MD 2129 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 2129
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Areas affected...Portions of southern/central Arizona
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 251925Z - 252130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible this
afternoon. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...An upper-level low is moving slowly east-southeastward
in central California. A weak surface low in the lower Colorado
Valley is present along with a warm front across central into
southeast Arizona. Strong heating of a moist (mid/upper 50s F
dewpoints) airmass has promoted widely scattered thunderstorm
development late this morning into early afternoon. Some mid-level
subsidence is noted on the 18Z TUS sounding; however, forcing for
ascent should increase steadily through the afternoon/evening as the
upper low approaches.
With continued heating along the surface boundary and the Mogollon
Rim, scattered to numerous storms will develop. Shear is not
particularly strong (around 20-25 kts 0-6 km per area VAD data), but
will marginally increase later today. The strongest storms will be
capable of isolated large hail. Severe gusts will also be possible
given the well-mixed boundary layer.
..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 32971140 33451182 34541256 35031265 35331218 35031090
34491008 33850966 32300957 31510974 31250991 31261088
32971140
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
