SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the central and southern Plains this evening. ...Midwest into the central and southern Plains... Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad and elongated upper trough over much of the central CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the northern Plains will advance northeastward while a secondary vort max continues eastward over the central Rockies. Ascent from these features and a southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread a northeast to southwest oriented surface cold front from MN to eastern CO. Modest surface moisture and prior diurnal heating along the front have allowed weak surface-based destabilization, supporting scattered storm development early this evening. As convection continues developing, an isolated severe storm risk is expected given 35-45 kt of effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ along the front. A few initial supercell structures are likely given the strong flow aloft. With time, anafrontal forcing and increasing storm coverage should transition ongoing storms toward a more linear mode. This will favor some initial severe hail and isolated severe gusts as the primary concerns before storms weaken overnight. Farther north across the Midwest, an occasional strong/severe storm will remain possible this evening. Despite stronger synoptic ascent closer to the shortwave trough, lingering cloud cover and limited moisture have stymied available buoyancy. This should limit storm intensity, though isolated strong gusts remain possible tonight as linear convection should gradually mature along the front. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2025
