SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CO PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Eastern Great Basin and the CO Plateau... A broad upper trough will shift east across the West as a basal shortwave impulse ejects through the Great Basin on Saturday afternoon/evening. This will be favorably timed with peak surface heating across the eastern Great Basin into parts of the CO Plateau, as a swath of strong 500-mb southwesterlies overspreads. Early afternoon convective development should occur along and ahead of the sharpening Pacific cold front as it pushes east. While overall buoyancy will remain weak, owing to progressively poorer mid-level lapse rates with southeast extent and cooler surface temperatures/dew points to the northwest, the strong flow and forcing for ascent should support development of at least a few supercells. Isolated severe gusts should be the primary hazard, but a brief tornado and marginally severe hail may occur as well. ..Grams.. 10/09/2025
