SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorms may still increase overnight across parts of central and southern Louisiana, and perhaps as early as late evening across parts of southeastern Texas coastal areas. ...01Z Update... As a notable short wave perturbation pivots around the southern through eastern periphery of a mid/upper low now centered over the south central Great Plains, modest strengthening of initially weak lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are forecast across the northwest Gulf coast through lower Mississippi Valley overnight. It appears that this may include south to southwesterly flow increasing in excess of 30 kts in the 850-700 mb layer across the Louisiana coast through southwestern Mississippi after 06Z. As this occurs, forcing for ascent, supported by at least modest low-level warm advection beneath an increasingly divergent upper flow field overspreading the region, may contribute to increasing thunderstorm development. In the presence of strong deep-layer shear and a moist low-level environment characterized by CAPE on the order of 1000-2000+ J/kg, organized convection, perhaps including supercells and an upscale growing cluster or two, may be accompanied by a risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 10/26/2025
