SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR AND OFFSHORE OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST...AND NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm activity could still develop and impact areas near or offshore of southern Alabama through the western Florida Panhandle Gulf coast late this evening into the overnight hours, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...01Z... Expansive cold surface ridging, centered to the north of the lower Great Lakes region, is maintaining a considerable stabilizing influence as far south and west as northern Florida through the Texas Gulf coast and southern Great Plains. However, as broadly cyclonic mid-level flow continues to overspread the Gulf coast vicinity, model output indicates that an area of relatively lower surface pressure may develop along a weak baroclinic zone across and offshore of southeastern Louisiana coastal areas tonight. Along the frontal zone downstream of the low, high resolution ensemble output has been suggesting that the environment could become conducive to vigorous convective development with evolving embedded cyclonic mesoscale circulations. Based on latest observational data, some increase in such activity still appears possible near or offshore of coastal areas from southern Alabama through the western Florida Panhandle tonight. But potential for inland development with an appreciable risk for severe weather beyond immediate coastal areas appears rather low. Near Florida's Space Coast, coastal convergence enhanced by moist, potentially unstable onshore easterly low-level flow has contributed to sufficient lift to overcome mid-level inhibition. In the presence of moderate shear beneath modest westerly mid/upper westerlies, it appears that the environment may remain marginally conducive to occasional evolution of supercell structures into at least mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 10/27/2025
