SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... As blocking mid/upper ridging remains centered offshore of southeastern Greenland, models indicate that a broad cyclonic regime will be maintained to its southwest, centered near the Canadian Maritimes. Some amplification of large-scale troughing extending southward offshore of the remainder of the North American Atlantic coast is forecast, downstream of a significant mid-level trough and embedded cyclone migrating northeast and east of the Canadian Prairies, on the leading edge of a more progressive regime. Upstream, ridging ahead of another short wave trough appears likely to spread across and inland of the British Columbia/adjacent Pacific Northwest coast, to the north of an increasingly cut-off low centered offshore of the central/southern California coast. ...Southern California... Models indicate that the modifying mid-level cold core (including coldest 500 mb temperatures warming above -24 C) will generally remain offshore through this period, tending to pivot away from central coastal areas while perhaps slowly toward southern coastal areas late Friday night. While a corridor of continued low/mid-level moistening along a slow moving, occluded frontal zone may compensate and contribute to layers of weak conditional instability inland of southern California coastal into the southern Sierra Nevada/Mojave Desert vicinity, 10 percent or greater probabilities for thunderstorms appear generally focused offshore. Forcing for ascent associated with a weak developing frontal wave late Friday night might provide support for the best potential for thunderstorm development closest to coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 11/12/2025
