SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, southern Florida, and central Utah. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving through the Upper Great Lakes region and the other moving into the Upper Midwest, will pivot eastward/northeastward today, with the second shortwave ending the period extended from eastern Quebec through New England. Farther west, another shortwave trough will drop southeastward through the Great Basin. Evolution of these waves will promote continued upper troughing across the western and central CONUS while the eastern CONUS trends more zonal. At the surface, a low associated with the Upper Great Lakes shortwave is currently centered over Lower MI. An extensive cold front extends southward from this low into northern KY before shifting more southwestward and continuing to another surface low just off the South TX Coast. The primary surface low is forecast to progress northeastward across southeastern Ontario and eastern Quebec while occluding throughout the day. As it does, northern and central portions of the cold front will make steady eastward/southeastward progress throughout the day, likely extending from southern New England through the Carolina Piedmont by 00Z. Southern portion of the front will also move eastward, but more slowly, as a weak frontal low moves eastward along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Dry and stable conditions associated with a cold continental airmass will preclude thunderstorms across the majority of the CONUS. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across the immediate western/central Gulf Coast, where moderate low-level moisture remains in place ahead of the cold front and/or surface low. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible across the southern/eastern FL Peninsula amid moderate low-level moisture and weakly convergent low-level easterly flow. Lastly, a few flashes could occur within any deeper convection over central UT as the Great Basin shortwave trough progresses across the region. ..Mosier/Dean.. 11/30/2025
