SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley... A vigorous 70-80 knot mid-level jet over the Permian Basin and TX Panhandle will accompany an upper trough ejecting into the southern High Plains through the afternoon, contributing to surface lee troughing across eastern NM. Efficient boundary layer mixing under mostly clear skies south of the surface trough and robust mid-level flow will support downslope-enhanced west winds of 15-20 mph amid 15-20% relative humidity this afternoon across the Permian Basin region. A swath of 20-25 mph west winds is expected from southeastern NM into the TX Rolling Plains amid 15% RH, but recent rainfall should mitigate fire weather threat, with elevated highlights remaining to the south of higher antecedent moisture conditions. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely to extend into central TX/Hill Country this evening as surface flow transitions to the northwest ahead of a looming secondary cold front dropping south through Northwest TX. These meteorological conditions should align with receptive fuels within a region that has seen minimal rainfall in the last 30 days. ..Williams.. 01/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/ ...Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough over the Southwest is forecast to rapidly move eastward before merging with a broader upper trough over the central US. A front, trailing from the first trough/low will linger over the Ozarks and Red River Valley. A weak lee low will develop and move east as cold front move south. Gusty west/northwest winds and dry conditions may promote elevated fire-weather potential. ...Southwest TX and Rio Grande Valley... As the upper trough approaches from the west, large-scale ascent will support increasing mass response over portions of West TX. As the weak secondary low deepens over the southern Rockies, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the remnant warm/dry sector over parts of Southwestern TX and the Rio Grande Valley. Downslope winds and diurnal heating should result in low RH around 20% through the afternoon. Winds will initially be sustained around 15-20 mph, but eventually the approach of the second cold front will support increasing gusts to 20-30 mph turning northwesterly. The increasing winds will overlap with low RH late in the afternoon and into the evening. Some dry and windy conditions may extended eastward into the western Hill Country after dark. With dry fuels in place outside of recent and expected rainfall, several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear probable. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
