SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CST Thu Nov 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A strong cold front will sweep southeastward across the eastern U.S. through the weekend. With deeper boundary layer moisture confined to the Southeast, dry and breezy post-frontal conditions will pose a fire weather threat to portions of the central Plains Day 3/Saturday, reaching southern TX by Day 4/Sunday. Lingering effects of dry, offshore flow could bring fire weather concerns back to the far southeast/FL Panhandle on Day 5/Monday. As the highly amplified upper trough pushes through eastern Seaboard and lee troughing across the Plains redevelops, dry and breezy southerly flow returns to the southern Plains by Day 6/Tuesday. Warm and dry conditions and generally light winds will persist through at least through the middle of next week under a persistent upper-level ridge. ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Gusty north-northwest winds behind a cold front across the central and southern Plains are likely across portions of eastern CO/western KS on Saturday. A mid-level jet will should reinforce downslope drying in the lee of the CO Rockies. This combination of winds and low RH amid dry fuels and cured grasses should present an enhanced fire weather threat where 40% critical probabilities highlight this potential. Fire weather concerns shift southward into southern TX on Sunday as the cold front brings stronger north winds to the state. Rainfall deficits and dry fuels along with dry northerly flow behind the front should increase wildfire spread potential across southern TX where 40% probabilities remain. ...Day 5-6/Monday-Tuesday... Some precipitation is expected with the frontal passage across the Southeast over the weekend before a dry, continental air mass shunts any worthwhile moisture offshore by Day 5/Monday. Extended forecast guidance shows portions of the Southeast could evade a more significant rain event prior to the arrival of dry and breezy post-frontal conditions (particularly across the Carolina Piedmont, southern GA and Fl Panhandle), limiting confidence in introducing probabilities at this time. Farther west, dry return flow on the western periphery of a surface high pressure across the Southeast and deepening lee troughing across the Plains is still likely to bring fire weather concerns back into portions of central TX on Day 6/Tuesday, where 40% critical probabilities persist. ...Day 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday... Increasing forecast uncertainty from ensemble guidance emerges mid to late week regarding upper-level pattern, reducing overall predictability of broader fire weather threats across CONUS. ..Williams.. 11/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
