SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night, aside from some possible weak thunderstorm activity near Texas coastal areas prior to daybreak Saturday. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it appears that the evolving flow may include a short wave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies will continue to lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 12/10/2025
