SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the Lower Texas Coast early Saturday morning. ...Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery indicates an upper-level jet streak moving eastward across northern MX. The core of this feature will advance into the western Gulf tonight -- remaining south of TX. In response, a modest increase in southerly low-level flow will deepen boundary-layer moisture/erode inhibition and yield weak surface-based buoyancy over the western Gulf and Lower TX Coast overnight. While most deep convection should be confined to the higher low-level theta-e plume offshore, strengthening coastal convergence amid the deepening low-level moisture may support a couple storms over the immediate coastal areas in the 08-12Z time frame. A remnant warm layer aloft and weak low/mid-level flow should limit updraft intensity over land areas. ..Weinman.. 12/12/2025
