SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MO/AR TO TN/KY/OH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday into Sunday night from Arkansas and Missouri into parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. ...MO/AR to TN/KY/OH... Phasing of multiple shortwave impulses will support amplification of an upper trough, as it progresses from the High Plains to the North-Central States. This will induce deepening of a surface cyclone from near the Ozarks to the eastern Great Lakes. Attendant cold front will accelerate on Sunday night as it quickly moves east across the OH Valley and south into the Northwest Gulf. Isolated to scattered elevated convection within the strengthening low-level warm conveyor should persist, yielding a northern limiter to potential severe thunderstorms later in the day through Sunday night. Outside of the likely too cool/stable 00Z NAM, bulk of preferred guidance suggest weak surface-based destabilization may occur as a broad plume of upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints becomes established ahead of the front and deepening cyclone. Richer boundary-layer moisture with at least mid 60s surface dewpoints should largely hold over the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Late afternoon surface-based storms may develop over the Mid-MS Valley/Ozarks vicinity. Amid broadening large-scale ascent, upscale growth into a thin but long QLCS seems plausible along the front given the orientation of the deep-layer winds. Despite only minimal to meager surface-based instability on Sunday night, intensifying wind fields throughout the troposphere could support a convective line with/without lightning. This may yield a threat of sporadic strong to severe gusts producing at least isolated damaging winds. ..Grams.. 12/26/2025
