Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent. The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.
