SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous U.S. today. A few thunderstorms may occur from eastern Kansas into northern Missouri toward Sunday morning. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Most of the CONUS will remain free of thunderstorms for much of the day as a western trough progresses into the Plains late tonight into Sunday. Ahead of this trough, upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with low-level warming and moisture advection. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the lower MO/Mid MS Valley late. This air mass will remain capped for most of the period. After about 06Z tonight, midlevel cooling will be more prominent into KS/NE/IA, with a zone of elevated instability becoming uncapped. While effective shear will be strong, instability should only average at or below 500 J/kg. CAMs suggest storms may develop after 08Z over northeast KS and move into northern MO through 12Z Sunday. It appears that any hail risk will be non-severe/small. ..Jewell/Karstens.. 12/27/2025
