SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest high-res guidance continues to show limited thunderstorm potential until around/after 06z tonight across portions of northeast KS into northern MO and western IL. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies. Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer shear will be strong.
