Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today. Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.
