SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on New Year's Day across parts of southern California and Arizona. ...Southern CA to AZ... While guidance has general agreement of a compact/lower-amplitude shortwave impulse off the southern CA coast, models differ on its spatial placement and potential dampening inland on Thursday amid a broad ridge anchored across the West downstream of a longwave trough in the northeast Pacific. This renders uncertainty over the degree of mesoscale low-level flow enhancement along coastal southern CA between 12-18Z, which will be crucial to any severe potential with low-topped convection amid a meager buoyancy profile. In addition, with latitudinal inconsistency in placement of the compact mid-level cold core, confidence is low in the degree of thunderstorm potential. The 00Z ECMWF appears to support potential for low-probability severe on Thursday morning. Most other models, along with the latest GEFS and yesterday's ECENS ML guidance, indicate negligible severe potential. Farther inland, buoyancy should remain scant east of the Peninsular Ranges. But it may be adequate for sporadic lightning flashes that yield very isolated thunderstorms across southwest AZ through Thursday evening. ..Grams.. 12/30/2025
