SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along coastal southern California very late in the period. ...Southern CA... Seasonally strong southern-stream upper trough is forecast to approach the southern CA coast late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong 500mb speed max will translate through the base of the trough by 01/12z, and the left-exit region of this speed max will encourage convection along/ahead of a weak front as it surges inland, primarily after 09z. Forecast soundings along the coast suggest thunderstorms should be elevated in nature, with initial convection likely rooted above 850mb. However, as the front approaches, the level of parcel lift should lower, but likely remain slightly elevated. Even so, low-level shear/forcing is not expected to be particularly strong, and buoyancy appears inadequate for any meaningful risk of severe. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/31/2025
