SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this period. Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great Plains through Southeast. This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin. Downstream, a weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday evening. However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening. It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor. At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or two. With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb. At this point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored. ..Kerr.. 12/06/2025
