SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and locally strong gusts remain possible, mainly through late evening across the south-central portion of the Florida Peninsula. ...South-central FL... A convectively reinforced front has been sagging south across central FL over the past couple hours. The bulk of convection has weakened as it spread across the peninsula, with deeper/renewed updrafts holding off the Gulf Coast, southwest of Tampa Bay to west of Fort Myers. 23Z XMR and 00Z TBW soundings sampled less-than-moist adiabatic lapse rates through much of the troposphere, which will remain a limiting factor to intensification of convection over land. But strong deep-layer shear (effective bulk values in excess of 50 kts) and moderate low-level hodograph enhancement will maintain a low-probability tornado and strong wind gust threat through late evening. This may be focused near the juncture of the eastern Gulf convection with the undercutting boundary. With only minor large-scale ascent, offshore convection should wane overnight and severe potential across the peninsula should diminish. See MCD 2253 for additional short-term discussion. ..Grams.. 12/08/2025
