SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the central Plains/middle MS Valley into the eastern U.S. through the period. At the same time, a weak surface low will move eastward across the TN Valley, while a southwestward-extending cold front overspreads east TX and the central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, initially shallow/elevated convection should gradually deepen as the PBL destabilizes across east TX and LA during the afternoon. While isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the southeastward-moving front, weak buoyancy and only modest deep-layer shear should limit the severe risk -- especially given weak large-scale ascent over the warm sector. ..Weinman.. 02/01/2026
