Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.
