SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CST Tue Feb 03 2026 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Late-evening surface observations show a cold front advancing south into the northwestern Gulf/lower MS River Valley. This feature is expected to continue southeastward over the next 24 hours amid building high pressure across the central CONUS. Despite seasonal moisture in place along the Gulf Coast, warm mid-level temperatures/poor lapse rates will largely limit much appreciable buoyancy. However, forecast soundings suggest sufficient MUCAPE for isolated thunderstorms may develop within the pre-frontal air mass by late morning/early afternoon across the northern Gulf into parts of southern AL and the FL Panhandle. Given the poor thermodynamic environment, severe/organized convection is not expected, and any appreciable lightning threat to land should diminish after 00 UTC. ..Moore/Wendt.. 02/04/2026
