Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.
