SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast. ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast... Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes. Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle Atlantic. One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level shear will weaken. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026
