SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Largely cyclonic flow aloft is anticipated over much of the central and eastern CONUS today, while a modifying Rex block configuration evolves over the western CONUS. Stable conditions are forecast across the majority of the CONUS, with offshore trajectories persisting across the Southeast and a reinforcing surge of cold air across the northern and central Plains as shortwave trough drops southeastward out the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest this evening. A few lightning flashes could occur with the elevated convection expected tonight from TX Rio Grande Valley into the TX Hill Country as the upper low associated with the modifying Rex Block progresses across central Mexico. A flash or two could also occur along the southeast FL Coast after 04Z, where low-level convergence and moderate low-level moisture may result in sporadic deep convection. However, overall thunderstorm coverage is currently forecast to be less than 10% in both of these areas. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 01/12/2026
