SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough is forecast to amplify across the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday. Within the large-scale trough, multiple embedded shortwaves will move across parts of the northern Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes, while a weak upper low initially over southwest TX will eject eastward as a shortwave trough. A surface low is forecast to move across parts of Ontario and southern Quebec. A weak cold front will move across parts of the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, while a stronger reinforcing front will move across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes late in the period. Moisture return within the warm sector of the primary cyclone is expected to remain too meager for any appreciable destabilization and thunderstorm threat. One area where thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out is across far southeast FL and the Keys, where some low-level moistening beneath cooling midlevel temperatures may support MUCAPE of around 500-1000 J/kg. Generally weak large-scale ascent and a warm layer around 700 mb are expected to limit thunderstorm coverage, but a storm or two may develop, especially near or just offshore of the southeast FL coast, within a low-level convergence zone. ..Dean.. 01/12/2026
