Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models continue to indicate that highly amplified mid-level troughing will persist across much of North America (to the east of the Rockies) and the Gulf Basin through this coming weekend into early next week, when an initially prominent ridge near the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast begins to weaken and perhaps redevelop to the west/northwest. Thereafter, sizable spread remains evident within and among the various model output concerning shorter wavelength developments and blocking within the larger-scale split flow across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, and the impacts on the downstream flow remain unclear. In general, it still appears that the Gulf Coast states and Gulf Basin may come under the increasing influence of a strengthening belt of westerlies emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, and troughing may tend to dig within the mid-latitude westerlies near and inland of the Pacific coast through mid to late next week. However, even with guidance indicating potential for modest surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by the end of the period, it does not appear that moist return flow off a modifying Gulf boundary-layer will yet become supportive of appreciable inland destabilization.
