SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/17/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026/ ...Discussion... Deep convective potential will remain virtually nil through tonight as a longwave trough persists east of the Rockies, with an embedded shortwave trough amplifying over the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks and Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will continue southeastward and clear much of the coastal Southeast except the Florida Peninsula by tonight. Near/ahead of the front, even with some late-day moisture increase across the Peninsula, poor lapse rates aloft are expected to limit thunderstorm potential.
