Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential will remain low for most of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period as persistent troughing envelops much of the country. However, a couple chances for thunderstorm activity may develop from TX to the Lower MS Valley vicinity on Day 5/Wed and possibly toward the end of the period heading into the weekend. These chances will occur as modified Gulf moisture impinges on the TX coastal vicinity on Wednesday as an upper trough moves across the Plains toward the MS Valley. Moisture return, in response to a developing low in the lee of the southern Rockies, will remain shallow, but could be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across portions of southeast TX into LA Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning. Some guidance suggests a weak upper shortwave trough and enhanced southwesterly flow could overspread the Gulf Basin during the weekend, bringing some deeper boundary layer moisture into portions of the western and central Gulf coast states. However, guidance varies considerably and run-to-run consistency is poor.
