Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.
