Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday. Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday. In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.
