SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough/low near the CA coast will develop east toward southern CA/northern Baja by Friday morning. As this occurs, upper flow over the eastern half of the CONUS will become flatter/quasi-zonal. At the surface, arctic high pressure will build over the Canadian Prairies and begin to slide southward into the Plains, ushering in a very cold airmass. Forecast guidance varies in the location of an arctic cold front by the end of the period, but the expectation is that by early Friday morning, the front will be located somewhere near central OK to the Red River, and stretch eastward toward the Mid-South. Modified Gulf moisture will be located well south of the front from central/southern TX toward the central Gulf Coast. Isolated convection may develop near or to the cool side of the cold front late Thursday night/early Friday morning across north TX/southern OK within warm advection around 850 mb. However, instability is expected to be very minor and lighting is not expected. Further south in better low-level moisture, forcing for ascent will be limited and warm midlevel temperatures will preclude destabilization. ..Leitman.. 01/20/2026
