SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0114 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of amplified split flow across the Pacific into western North America, models indicate that several short wave troughs will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains into Mississippi Valley during this period. This is likely to include at least a couple of merging perturbations of Canadian Arctic origin digging across the international border through the northern U.S. Rockies and Great Plains, and another emerging from the northern mid-latitude Pacific before digging inland across the Pacific Northwest coast through the Great Basin. Yet another impulse, emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, is generally forecast to accelerate across Baja and the northern Mexican Plateau, into the southern Great Plains by late Saturday night. Preceded by the southeastward development of an expansive cold surface ridge across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies, as far south as the Gulf coast vicinity, the potential for significant lee surface cyclogenesis appears low through this period. However, latest guidance appears generally consistent indicating modestly deepening surface troughing, accompanying erosion of the cold air, in one corridor across the lower Mississippi Valley toward the lower Ohio Valley, and another near/offshore of the Carolina coast by late Saturday night. Associated destabilization still appears likely to remain elevated, and generally weak, in nature inland of northwestern and central Gulf coastal areas, with negligible risk for severe weather through at least 12Z Sunday. ..Kerr.. 01/22/2026
