SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast are needed. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/23/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026/ A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern OK where freezing p-types are anticipated. Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front - mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.
