SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Northwest/North Central Gulf Coast... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low off the Baja Peninsula. This feature is forecast to eject across the central Baja around mid day as a 500mb speed max rounds the base of the trough, then ejects into northeast Mexico by 25/06z. In response to this speed max, a weak surface low should develop along the polar front over the northwest Gulf basin, then lift northeast across southeast LA into southern MS late in the period. Latest model guidance suggests modified Gulf air mass will return to the northern Gulf coast ahead of this weak surface low, but forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that most likely will not recover adequately for surface-based convection. While MUCAPE will increase ahead of the front, any thunderstorms that form will likely be at least slightly elevated in nature. Early in the period there is some concern for a few robust thunderstorms near the TX Gulf coast. However, polar front will surge offshore near the start of the day1 and the primary concern for organized storms will be quickly shunted southeast off the coast. At this time the probability for severe thunderstorms appears too low to warrant a MRGL Risk. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/24/2026
