SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley/Southeast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low just off the coast of the central Baja Peninsula. Deep southwesterly flow aloft extends northeastward from this low across Mexico and the southern Plains before joining the more confluent, single-stream southwesterlies in place from the MS Valley eastward. A subtle shortwave trough is currently progressing northeastward across central TX within the belt of stronger flow preceding the upper low, contributing to some deeper convective cores over the region. Expectation is for this shortwave to continue northeastward, resulting in an expansion of precipitation downstream. Forecast soundings do show some minimal buoyancy, supporting the potential for some deeper convective cores capable of lightning. Highest thunderstorm chances will be concentrated across southern LA, but low probabilities also exist farther north where low-level profiles will be cold enough for freezing rain and/or sleet. The Baja upper low is forecast to progress eastward throughout the day, moving across central Mexico and reaching central TX by early tomorrow morning. Evolution of this low will encourage northeastward progression of a surface low along the surging arctic cold front. This will take the low from its current location over deep south TX quickly northeastward over the northwest Gulf basin, across southern LA and to the central AL/MS border vicinity. Strong low-level southerly flow is anticipated ahead of the upper low and associated surface low as well, with this overall evolution contributing to rapid airmass modification from the central Gulf Coast into central AL and MS. Even with this modification, most forecast soundings depict a boundary layer that does not recover adequately for surface-based convection. General expectation is for ascent attendant to this system to support another round of precipitation beginning over east TX after 06Z before expanding northeastward with time. Some very modest buoyancy is possible atop a strong warm noise, with isolated elevated thunderstorms possible. This thunder potential includes areas from east TX across northern/central LA into northern MS where surface temperatures will be below freezing, suggesting some lightning is possible with mixed winter precipitation. ...Southwest... A shortwave trough is forecast to progress cyclonically from central CA into AZ during the period. Cold mid-level temperatures combined with ascent from the shortwave will support the potential for a few isolated thunderstorms across central and southeast AZ and southwest NM from the late afternoon through tonight. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 01/24/2026
