SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible through tonight. ...20Z Update... A stronger storm has evolved out of activity in central Texas. This activity is occurring along a buoyancy gradient along the surface boundary. While storms will likely remain elevated, a strong to severe storm or two may be capable of marginally severe hail. The Marginal has been adjusted to account for this potential. Additionally, the Slight risk has been moved slightly southward in central Mississippi given persistent northerly winds and drying low levels in northern portions of the state. See the previous forecast for additional details. ..Wendt.. 01/09/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026/ ...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon... A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near 70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime, an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue with a stronger storm or two. ...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight... Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow (per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail threat will also continue into the overnight.
