MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024
Areas affected…southeast TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 291947Z – 292145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong thunderstorms are possible through early
evening. Locally gusty winds of 45-60 mph and hail to near 1 inch
diameter are possible with these storms.
DISCUSSION…Visible satellite shows a deepening cumulus field
across southeast Texas this afternoon, and convective initiation
appears close in convection near Houston. Strong heating and surface
dewpoints in the 70s F, in addition to near 7 C/km midlevel lapse
rates, are contributing to MLCAPE up to 2500 J/kg. Southeasterly
low-level flow becoming west/northwesterly in the mid/upper levels
is resulting in effective shear values near 30 kt. Furthermore,
forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs. This will
support at least transient supercells and semi-organized clusters
capable of near 1 inch diameter hail. A somewhat dry EML and PW
values around 1.75-2 inches also will support strong gusts.
Convection is expected to remain somewhat isolated and severe
potential overall appears limited, and a watch is not currently
expected.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…HGX…CRP…EWX…
LAT…LON 31009582 31039513 30579457 30029435 29419444 29079454
28679497 28329572 28249632 28459689 28979696 31009582
