MD 0132 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0132
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Areas affected…Portions of far eastern Mississippi and
southwestern Alabama
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 112014Z – 112145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…A strong/severe storm or two is possible this afternoon.
Large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two could occur. A
watch is uncertain in the short term, but convective trends will be
monitored.
DISCUSSION…Thunderstorms have steadily increased in coverage and
intensity along surface boundary in southern Alabama. While cooler
temperatures and weaker mid-level lapse rates this far east have
limited buoyancy, slow warming and moistening from the south has
allowed MLCAPE to rise to 500 to near 1000 J/kg. The strongest
storms in this cluster are most likely to remain along the
southern/southwestern flank with access to more unstable inflow.
Strong shear will mean the strongest storms will be supercells
capable of large hail and damaging winds. The KMOB VAD does show
modest low-level veering. Furthermore, low-level winds are forecast
to increase later this afternoon/evening. A tornado or two would be
possible with the strongest storms. A watch is uncertain in the
short term, but may become needed if coverage in the warm sector
increases.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BMX…MOB…JAN…
LAT…LON 31288859 31588870 31868860 32168828 32468726 32368660
32128648 31658668 31128770 31288859
