MD 1356 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE MID-MO TO UPPER MS VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 1356
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024
Areas affected…parts of the Mid-MO to Upper MS Valley
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 211825Z – 212030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…A generally isolated severe threat should develop into
late afternoon with a mix of wind/hail, along with a couple
tornadoes possible. Uncertainty exists with the overall spatial
extent of the severe threat with slow-moving storms expected.
DISCUSSION…Convection is slowly increasing along a
quasi-stationary/slow-moving warm front that arcs from northeast NE
into far southeast MN and southwest WI. The eastern portion of this
development appears to be primarily driven by modest low-level warm
theta-e advection within an uncapped, moderately buoyant air mass.
Convection farther west over the Mid-MO Valley is also being aided
by a minor MCV in southeast SD. Area VWPs still indicate relatively
stronger mid/upper flow is likely displaced along and to the cool
side of the front, with weak flow into the warm-moist sector. A
confined corridor of slow-moving, transient supercells and multicell
clusters should develop near and just south of the front. Overall
severe coverage will probably remain sporadic with mainly a
lower-end wind/hail threat. Confidence is somewhat higher in
intensification, including the potential for a couple tornadoes, in
association with the MCV over the Mid-MO Valley.
..Grams/Hart.. 06/21/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MKX…DVN…ARX…MPX…DMX…FSD…OAX…LBF…
LAT…LON 44379225 43909048 43159028 42659136 42609154 42749384
42489615 42449837 42599907 43169904 43359876 43749576
44379225
