MD 1488 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1488
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected…Maine and New Hampshire
Concerning…Severe potential…Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 301434Z – 301630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
into early afternoon. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will be
possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed in the
next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION…Scattered thunderstorms have already developed this
morning across portions of southern Quebec ahead of an
eastward-advancing cold front. Downstream from this activity,
modest/gradual destabilization is occurring across NH/ME where
heating is occurring amid scattered/broken clouds. Stronger heating
and richer boundary-layer moisture will likely remain focused across
parts of NH into western/coastal ME. Nevertheless, strong vertical
shear will remain in place over the area and instability will be
sufficient for bands/clusters of strong/severe storms into the
afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show a deeply mixed boundary
layer with steep low level lapse rates amid 45+ kt effective shear
by early afternoon, supporting damaging wind potential. Straight,
elongated hodographs also suggest hail may be possible with any more
discrete storm mode. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed for portions of the area within the next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Gleason.. 06/30/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…CAR…GYX…BTV…
LAT…LON 46936760 45146690 44086809 43087095 43317167 43677184
45357128 47006981 47196947 47226831 46936760
