MD 1838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST WI…FAR NORTHEAST IL…SOUTHWEST LOWER MI…SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Aug 06 2024
Areas affected…Southeast WI…far northeast IL…southwest lower
MI…southern Lake Michigan
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 060726Z – 060930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this
morning.
DISCUSSION…A long-lived storm cluster is currently moving across
southeast WI, with a recent history of localized wind gusts in the
40-45 kt range. While this cluster has weakened somewhat as it has
moved into a less unstable environment, a notable pressure
perturbation persists, as noted by a relatively sharp pressure
rise/fall couplet and earlier easterly 46 kt gust at KMSN.
This cluster may persist overnight as it moves east-southeastward
along a low-level baroclinic zone, aided by a rather strong
nocturnal low-level jet. While substantial low-level stability will
tend to limit a more widespread severe threat, isolated
strong/damaging gusts remain possible early this morning, especially
if the ongoing cluster can propagate into a somewhat more moist and
unstable environment across southwest lower MI.
..Dean/Edwards.. 08/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…IWX…GRR…LOT…MKX…
LAT…LON 42268890 42968876 43178823 43138706 43028626 42778562
42488564 42258564 41878607 42088743 42268890
