
MD 1968 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 1968
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2024
Areas affected…portions of southern Arizona
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 212142Z – 212315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few instances of severe hail/wind gusts are possible
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The severe
threat should remain isolated, and a WW issuance is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Pulse-cellular storms have been percolating in
intensity over the past few hours with approach of peak afternoon
heating. These storms are developing atop a low-level airmass
characterized by steep low-level lapse rates. Given relatively weak
vertical wind shear in place, storms will likely remain
pulse-cellular in nature, though a few multicell clusters are
possible. Severe gusts are the main threat, though a couple
instances of large hail may also accompany the strongest,
longest-lived storm cores.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/21/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TWC…PSR…
LAT…LON 31231125 32191173 33041210 33561201 33541125 33221064
32690992 32150936 31550924 31230931 31231125