MD 2001 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 649…650… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN SC INTO NC AND SOUTHEASTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 2001
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023
Areas affected…Portions of far northern SC into NC and
southeastern VA
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649…650…
Valid 151956Z – 152130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 649, 650
continues.
SUMMARY…The threat for severe/damaging winds and occasional hail
should continue as thunderstorms move eastward this afternoon.
Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern North Carolina may
be needed.
DISCUSSION…A few severe hail and damaging wind reports have
occurred with convection across parts of central NC over the past
couple of hours. Multiple small clusters are ongoing across central
into eastern NC and far southeastern VA. Enhanced west-southwesterly
mid-level flow and related 30-45 kt of deep-layer shear along/east
of a cold front should continue to organize convection this
afternoon and early evening, with a mix of clusters and occasional
supercells remaining possible. Ample daytime heating of a very moist
low-level airmass is contributing to 2000-3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE along
and downstream of the ongoing convection. With steep low-level lapse
rates in place, water-loaded downdrafts will be capable of producing
severe/damaging winds with the ongoing clusters as they move
eastward. Isolated hail also remains a possibility with supercells.
Given the current track of a small cluster in
north-central/northeastern NC and far southeastern VA, a downstream
watch that includes more of eastern NC may be needed.
..Gleason/Hart.. 08/15/2023
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…AKQ…MHX…RAH…ILM…RNK…CAE…GSP…
LAT…LON 34978167 36187970 36847737 36877600 35707568 35157686
34567999 34978167
